A Republican Minority, Forever?
It'll happen, unless something changes
In June of 2022, the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization1 resulting in a massive shift for electoral politics.
The easiest explanation of Dobbs is that it returned to the States the ability to regulate any aspects of abortion that are not covered by federal law. Rightly or wrongly decided, Dobbs is in keeping with the nation’s tradition of federalism.
That decision appeared to be a victory for Republicans, who have sought restrictions and outright bans on abortion ever since Roe v. Wade was decided in 1973.2 Pro Life Republicans got exactly what they had sought.
It was anything but a victory.
It was a loss for the Republican Party because it put the Party in opposition to the views of the vast majority of Americans,3 on an issue of extreme importance to a very large and motivated block of voters.4
Indeed just this week the Arizona Supreme Court found abortion in all cases except to save the life of the mother to be illegal in that State.5
Republicans will lose far more races than they win whenever it seems as if an abortion ban is possible. The Party can’t win on the issue, because it is contrary to the deeply held views of a huge majority. Unless something happens to change it, Republicans are facing perpetual minorities all across our country. We’ve already seen the massive impact Dobbs has had on elections6 and this impact will not lessen unless Republicans broadly embrace change.
Now that abortion is an issue for the States, State Legislators need to drive that change.
In those States where Republicans hold a majority they must find and enact an abortion policy that can be supported by an overwhelming majority of voters, and they must not stoke fears that they will continually chip away at legal abortion in such a way that would eventually lead to a ban. Pushing for a ban or restrictions not supported by most voters will put Republican majorities in jeopardy, no matter how red the State may be.
In those States where Republicans do not hold a majority, individual Republican Legislators need to refrain from introducing bills dealing with abortion that have no chance of passage, and are introduced simply to make pro-life constituents happy. Message bills like that may satisfy a Legislator’s base of voters, but they drive the majority of voters who feel differently to the polls. And this happens not only within the individual Legislative District, but has an effect across the State, and up and down the ballot.
Long ago Oscar Wilde said “When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.”7
Unless Republican State Legislators change in a meaningful way, Dobbs will prove to be their punishment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/507527/abortion-remains-potent-issue-pro-choice-voters.aspx
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/abortion/arizona-supreme-court-upholds-law-making-abortion-illegal-nearly-all
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/23/1183830459/one-year-after-the-dobbs-ruling-abortion-has-changed-the-political-landscape
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/52513-when-the-gods-wish-to-punish-us-they-answer-our
Huge majority = Mob rule? 🤔