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Warren Baxter's avatar

There’s a 70%–90% chance that proposed U.S. tariffs in 2025 will increase the cost of living, based on economic analyses and historical precedent.

J.P. Morgan: Estimates a 60% chance of a U.S. and global recession by the end of 2025, up from 40% earlier in the year. This is driven by aggressive tariff policies, including a 145% tariff on China and a 10% universal tariff, which could raise the average U.S. tariff rate to 30%. These policies are seen as a significant drag on growth, equivalent to a $1 trillion tax hike (3% of GDP), potentially amplified by trade retaliation and supply chain disruptions.

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Rat's avatar

Coincidentally, just yesterday we were examining a woolen vest (imported) at our local store (roughly equivalent to Dollar General but smaller, I suppose).

«It says 50% sheep wool.»

«Doesn't look like that,» my better half said skeptically.

«There is 50% sheep in great many deals,» I grinned.

«Sounds like something Rat would say.»

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Globalization of trade and development of information tech (that makes it easier to compare prices) have shifted the focus of competition from quality to price. But most of us aren't rich enough to afford cheap things.

I'm not sure if some de-globalization would help much, because the tech will still be there; but I'm not happy about the current state of affairs.

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